March Madness Contest
CBB: Final Four Betting Outlook
2010-04-05
The last time this many low seeds made it to the Final Four was 2000, when Michigan State (1 seed) was paired with Florida (5), Wisconsin (8) and North Carolina (8). For students of the game, it was obvious there were no great teams this season. Many of the higher seeds had flaws and most were exposed by opponents who brought a little something extra on the day these teams fell. While people talk about parity, a more concise assessment about the 2009-10 campaign was competitive balance, meaning on any given day, any team could beat another in a one game setting. It sets up what most believe is a wide-open mini tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend. Let's take a look at each teams championship odds according to Sportsbook.com, and their chances of cutting the nets down on Monday night.
Butler (+350 to win national championship at Sportsbook.com)
Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) advances to their first ever Final Four and as luck would have it, they don’t even have to travel to a far away destination. The Bulldogs have the highest winning percentage among the four teams at 88.8 percent, thanks to reeling off 24 (13-11 ATS) straight wins. This season the prize for doing so is playing in downtown Indianapolis, less than eight miles away from the Butler campus. The Bulldogs will be the first team to play in home city since UCLA in Los Angeles in 1971.
In the beginning of the season, Butler was top 10 material, but losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown and UAB (the first three in NCAA tournament) had people saying they weren’t quick or strong enough to compete at the higher levels. Looking at the kenpom.com for -Opponents average adjusted defensive efficiency- finds the Bulldogs have been in the Top 10 most of 2010 and explains why they have allowed more than 60 points once in last 12 games.
Butler has a star in Gordon Hayward and very good collegiate players like Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack along with Horizon League co-defensive player of the year Ronald Nored. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in last 10 NCAA tourney tilts.
Bulter can win the title at “home” if they continue to play the “Butler” way, which is hard-nosed defense, intelligent on offense and strict use of fundamentals which makes up for athletic shortcomings. Though not a good spread team, they are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times they’ve scored 70 or more points.
Michigan State (+450)
In the words of CBS announcer Verne Lundquist, “Well how do you do?” Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) keeps being counted out and for the sixth time since 1999 and in back to back years, the Spartans will their way to the Final Four. Tom Izzo’s squad will welcome the week off before playing on Saturday, as their road to Indianapolis has been the most nerve-wracking, winning four games by a total of 13 points, including the “blowout” of Northern Iowa by seven.
Many times we hear about coaches winning games in March and now April in college basketball, however a coach has never made or missed a shot from the sidelines. What makes Tom Izzo so special this time of year is attention to detail. He prepares his players to succeed all the time. A striking contrast between Michigan State and Kentucky in their Elite Eight games was the Spartans were more thoughtful and executed their passes better than the Wildcats, who were too casual. Izzo’s teams are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.
Michigan State is 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and its players have taken it upon themselves to make-up for the loss of top scorer Kalin Lucas. Looking at tape of the determination level of Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan is striking from a month ago; were it was not unusual for them to disappear on the floor for periods of time; no more for these Spartans in their hunt for a second straight championship game appearance.
The Spartans finish the job they started last season, by out-executing opponents and making shots.
West Virginia (+225)
It’s been 51 years since West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) has been to a Final Four, led by Jerry West, who would become NBA Hall of Famer and have his likeness be part of NBA logo. The Mountaineers were a team many believed capable of playing in Indianapolis in early April, way back in November.
This is a team that just keeps on working, being average in shooting at 43.1 percent, tenacious on the offensive glass and literally finding ways to win. This tournament more than in the past several years, shows the ability to win four games to reach this juncture is razor thin. A missed shot and a made basket at the other end within 10-20 seconds has ended up the difference or critical point for all these winners.
West Virginia is very much like their coach Bob Huggins, scrappy, tenacious and unrelenting. The Mountaineers look to impose their will on you with smothering defense, getting in your face with switching man-to-man. Huggins also has shown his flexibility in using 1-3-1 zone, something the older players were used to when John Beilein was still in Morgantown. Because of the height and wingspan of many of Huggins’ players, this zone has shutdown opposing teams, nearly every time is use. WVU is 16-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
Da'Sean Butler is the go to guy on offense and Devin Ebanks has learned his role on this club as the season wore on, being more effective offensively as well as defensively. Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith are excellent role players, each with job to do and Joe Mazzulla has stepped up game having to fill in for Darryl "Truck" Bryant.
The ‘Teers have won 10 in a row (7-3 ATS) and keep finding ways to win, which might be enough to be champs of college basketball if they can shorten scoring droughts.
Duke (+120)
On Selection Sunday, a few wondered if Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS) would be a No. 1 seed, as it turns out the selection committee was accurate in their assessment of the Blue Devils. This is as different a team as coach Mike Krzyzewski has taken to what will be his 11th Final Four. Most of the Durham teams of the past were loaded with high school All-Americans, many with pro potential. This team is more like a team of one of his former players and now assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski, just with more overall ability. “Wojo” was a tough-minded player who made the most of his talent and never quit. This Duke squad is much the same way, in attack mode continually.
This Blue Devils team can still fill the basket from all areas of the offensive zone, but now has the height with Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers, to aggressively rebound at both ends of the floor. The Dukies are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive rebounds. Duke also plays very good positional defense, holding teams to 40.2 percent shooting and now the guards and wing players can funnel opposing teams towards the lane where tall timber awaits.
Duke wins it all if they continue to play great defense, especially on the perimeter, rebound and have at least two of their three outside shooters, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler or Nolan Smith hitting at normal or above figures from the outside. A rested Duke squad is a very good squad this season at 17-1 and 11-5-1 ATS with three or more days off.
CBB: Road teams the play in NIT Quarterfinals?
2010-03-25
Last night two teams punched their tickets for a trip to New York next week and two more will do so tonight in the NIT. On Tuesday, both road underdogs covered the spread, with North Carolina winning outright. Is history due to repeat itself in Blacksburg and Champaign or will the home teams stand their ground and get ready to take a bite out of the Big Apple? After reading our brief previews on both games, head over to the LIVE ODDS and GAME MATCHUPS pages on Sportsbook.com for the latest key game information.
Rhode Island (25-9, 11-17 ATS) may have worn their road uniforms this month; however they haven’t visited enemy territory in awhile. The Rams haven’t played a true road game since Mar. 6 at Massachusetts, losing 69-67 as 7.5-point favorites.
In fact, Rhode Island hasn’t won a road game period, last doing so on Ground Hogs Day at LaSalle. The Rams are 24-12 ATS in non-conference contests the last three years and could use another hot shooting night from Delroy James, who pumped in a career-high 34 points against Nevada two nights ago, to help Rhode Island advance in 85-83 thriller. They are only 2-9 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season.
Virginia Tech (25-8, 14-12 ATS) also had a nail-biter Monday night, finding a way to knock off Connecticut 65-63. The Hokies won in spite of Malcolm Delaney scoring six points on 2-14 shooting. Delaney still found a way to contribute with nine assists.
Sportsbook.com has Virginia Tech as six-point favorite with total of 143 and the Hokies are 13-4 ATS off a close home win by three points or less, while the Rams are 2-8 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or points after 15 or more games this season. This first NIT quarterfinal is on ESPN2 at 7 Eastern with Rhode Island 11-0 UNDER against defensive teams surrendering 42 percent or less shooting percentage past the midway point of the regular season.
Dayton (21-12, 15-15 ATS) had an undistinguished regular season, finishing eighth in the A-10 and being bounced in the quarterfinals of the league tourney by Xavier. The Flyers can earn team redemption by winning tonight and moving on to NIT semis with upset of Illinois (21-14, 14-17 ATS). Dayton has played extremely well in this tournament, with a 20-point win over Illinois State and taking it to in-state partner Cincinnati 81-66 on their floor. The Flyers have locked up opponents with stifling defense, holding last two to 33.3 percent from the field. However, they are 5-18 ATS playing their second road game in three days.
Illinois was thought to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but they lost five of their last six regular season games and had two chances to knock off Ohio State in Big Ten tourney and failed to do so. Coach Bruce Weber’s squad has put aside that disappointment and is 40 minutes from making the trip to Madison Square Garden, winning three of last four and not losing against the spread in those contests (3-0-1 ATS). The Fighting Illini’s win against Kent State was impressive (75-58) and they are 29-13 ATS at home off a home win by 10 points or more.
Dayton is a three-point underdog for this 9:00 Eastern contest on “the deuce” and is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.
The StatFox Power Lines for these games show Virginia Tech by 8, Illinois by 3
Saint Mary vs. Villanova
2010-03-19
The tournament and March Madness has officially started and from the morning games we already know a couple of the match ups for the South division. The one I want to concentrate on is the game between No. 10 seeded Saint Mary and No. 2 seeded Villanova. Tipoff is March 20, 2010 at 3:00 pm eastern time in Houston.
Villanova barely got out of the first round, they needed extra time to put away No. 15 seeded Robert Morrison. The game started with Jay Wright benching senior Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, why, no one knows, coaches and players would not comment. Back to the game the Wildcats won in overtime 73 – 70, they were almost the fifth team to lose to a No. 15 seed in the first round. Villanova was simply outworked for most of the game by a sloppy-but-game Colonials squad that attacked the rim and hit the offensive glass, repeatedly exposing the Wildcats' interior defense in the same fashion Big East teams did in the final few weeks of the season.
The Saint Mary Gaels however, have gone on a little run in their last two games, first beating Gonzaga in their conference tournament and now knocking off No. 7 seeded Richmond in pretty convincing fashion, side note I had the Gaels in my bracket. St. Mary's also outrebounded Richmond 40 - 17 for the game, which is a staggering number but didn't seem to surprise the Gaels. The Spiders had no answer for Omar Samhan when he got the ball down low, and the Gaels had no problem getting it to him there.
Villanova and its fans have plenty to worry about. Villanova's bigs had a good game against Robert Morris on Thursday, but they're freshmen, and Omar Samhan might be a lot for them to handle. His post moves have improved considerably. Omar Samhan scored 17 of the Gaels’ 36 points just in the first half. If he continues to get position on the low block against Villanova, he should be able to score throughout the whole game. The Gaels should ensure that he touches it every time down the court. The offense has to go through him for the Gaels to make a decent run.
The lines are out and at www.sportsbook.com Nova is only 4.5 point favorites, which has to scare a lot of people and fans. But this guy does not think the game will be that close. Yes Nova looked pretty horrible today and yes the Gaels looked liked they belong, but I’m sure Jay Wright is tearing into his team right now or just adding to what he said at halftime.
Other interesting lines right now for this game are the Saint Mary Gaels are at +165 while the Villanova Wildcats are money line -190. If you don’t believe that the Nova’s are going to come through in this game I would take the Gaels money line to hedge my bet.
CBB: Florida at Kentucky (12:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-03-05
Remember a few years ago when Billy Donovan’s Florida team was the most dominant program in the country, having just wrapped up its second of back-to-back national titles? Well, the Gators haven’t even sniffed the tournament since and may find themselves on the outside looking in once again this March, unless they can do something like pull off an upset at Kentucky on Sunday afternoon. Read on for a preview of this key SEC contest then head over to the GAME MATCHUPS page of Sportsbook.com for all the key betting info on this last day of the college basketball regular season.
The Gators conclude the season with a matchup with their biggest rival: Kentucky. Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) was doing its best to align itself to return to tournament for the first time in three years with step-up efforts from Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker. However, recent close losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt have undermined their progress. Parsons has grown and displays an all-around game, getting others players involved in the offense, playing a point forward style. It will be a tough environment; nevertheless, the Gators are playing well and are 5-2 ATS as away underdogs this season.
This contest concludes what coach John Calipari hopes is a three part play. Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS) is the best team in the SEC and has the best record. He would prefer his team win the conference tournament to keep momentum building, followed by six consecutive wins and a national championship. That of course is down the road and this game is about showing dominance, especially on home floor, since presumably DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and John Wall will playing at Rupp Arena for the last time. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS vs. poor three-point shooting teams converting 31 or less of their attempts since last year.
Kentucky has won nine of the last dozen in Lexington over Florida with 6-5-1 ATS mark.
The StatFox Power Line shows Kentucky by 11.
CBB: Ranked teams to follow on Big Monday
2010-02-22
West Virginia and Kansas are both highly ranked teams as they have been all year and both will be in action Monday night looking to hang on to their lofty status. Because their seems to be no great teams in college basketball, there are a number of very good clubs that can still improve and each will be looking to do just that with the NCAA bids coming out in less than three weeks. Sports bettors should review what kind of progress each is making. Read on for a look at both Big Monday games, then go to the GAME MATCHUPS page at Sportsbook.com for more key info before hitting the confirm button on your wagers.
West Virginia at Connecticut 7:00E ESPN
Coaches in all sports will often talk about moving on to the next game, not dwelling too long on a win or loss. However, anyone who has ever spoken to a coach of any kind will know these fellows have long memories and think about the “what if” possibilities all the time. Coach Bob Huggins’ team is only one game behind second place Villanova in the loss column starting tonight and could do 30 minutes reciting all the ways the Mountaineers (21-5, 11-14 ATS) could have avoided the two point loss to Notre Dame, the one point loss to Syracuse and the triple-overtime defeat to rival Pittsburgh, which really would have placed them in the thick of Big East race. But Huggins, like most coaches, will revert to the task at hand at Connecticut. West Virginia is 6-3 and 4-5 ATS on the road.
It still looks like an outside shot, yet Connecticut (10-14-1 ATS) has renewed hope for a NCAA berth with a key victory here. The Huskies own two imposing road wins, over Rutgers and Villanova, and four more victories would take them to 20 for the season. A mini-run in the Big East tournament would then place them in excellent position. UConn is 6-1 ATS off a SU win and guard Kemba Walker has ignited this club and former starter Alex Oriakhi has been a spark off the bench. The return of Jim Calhoun has helped also, for Huskies team that is 13-3 at home (5-9 ATS).
Sportsbook.com opened West Virginia as three-point favorite with total of 134.5. The Mountaineers have won and covered four of previous six games, nonetheless is 3-6 ATS on the year after covering the spread and is 8-3-1 OVER away from Morgantown. Connecticut has covered the spread the last four times it has taken on clubs that win better than 60 percent of their road games and is 4-0 OVER to start a new work week.
The Huskies have been howling with a 6-2 ATS mark vs. the ‘Teers.
CBB: Rhode Island at Temple (4:00 PM ET, Comcast)
2010-02-12
No, that sound of collisions isn’t the traffic on the Lincoln Highway, it’s the logjam of teams at the top of the Atlantic 10 standings. Heading into the weekend, seven of the 14 teams had just two or three losses in league play. Two of the teams, Rhode Island and Temple, will get together for a key Saturday afternoon affair. The Owls are the hosts and have been tough to beat at home, thus the reason they are favored. Get all of the top betting trends for the contest on the Sportsbook.com GAME MATCHUP page.
A glance at the A-10 standings shows this race is going down to final weekend to crown regular season champion. One of the matchups that will help determine the eventual outcome is this tilt. Rhode Island (19-4, 8-10-2 ATS) would make Al Davis smile, since all they do is win. That method of play makes the Rams a poor play at home and swell choice on the road as the 8-2 SU and 6-2-2 ATS record proves. On game by game basis, Rhode Island has a lot of answers to take down opposing clubs.
No. 21 Temple (19-5, 14-10 ATS) has put together an impressive body of work in 2009-10. Victories over Villanova, Siena and Virginia Tech, along with its strong play in the A-10 makes the Owls a hoot. All year Temple has been among the best teams in college basketball in fewest points allowed (57.6), yet is not deficient in scoring (65.0), like other comparable units. This is not a squib; the Owls are 32-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last three seasons.
Rhode Island tries to prevent season sweep, however is 2-9 and 4-7 ATS at the Liacouras Center, against a Temple team that is 10-1 and 7-4 ATS on its home court.
StatFox Power Line – Temple by 6
CBB: Super Tuesday Betting Lineup in College Hoops
2010-01-26
Two of the top five teams in the polls will be on the road and available for viewing this Tuesday evening. No. 5 Michigan State travels to in-state rival Michigan for a tussle in the Wolverine State, while newly anointed No.1 Kentucky heads into hostile territory against South Carolina, who comes in off a crushing last second defeat at Florida. College basketball bettors are working feverishly to make this a Super Tuesday. Click over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook.com for the latest prices and read on for a quick look at the top action.
Spartans claim Michigan as their state
Michigan State (17-3, 8-11 ATS) showed its true grit at Minnesota, finding a way to win 65-64, to run its record to 7-0 (5-2 ATS) in the Big 10. The Spartans, despite shooting just 39.3 percent and trailing for most of the game, kept battling and nipped the Golden Gophers at the end. Michigan State has won 16 of last 19 games against Michigan (10-9 ATS) and coach Tom Izzo still carries the torch for Spartans fans to wallop the Wolverines. “I’m motivated by the fact that every alum in this country is motivated by it (beating Michigan),” Izzo said Monday. “I’m motivated by it because it stands in the way of us hopefully reaching our goals at the end of the year.”
The Spartans are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less, winning by 17.3 points per game.
Michigan’s overall season has been a massive disappointment in Ann Arbor at 10-9, with a similar 8-7 ATS record. The Wolverines were believed to be primed to make the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year after an 11-year drought, however, with a pedestrian record and just two noteworthy wins over Ohio State and Connecticut (both at Crisler Arena), it’s a call to action for Michigan. Coach John Beilein looks at the rest of the season this way, “You got to go on a big string at the end of the year or you have to peak at tournament time and win the tournament. Those are our two options right now.”
The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last two seasons.
Sportsbook.com has Michigan as 4.5-point home underdogs with total of 131, with the team suffering from unrest. The Wolverines have lost last two games at Wisconsin and at Purdue, the latter without star guard Manny Harris after a one-game suspension for an undisclosed incident in Friday’s practice. Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog since last season and forward DeShawn Sims said the team was “back to normal,” after the suspension. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, however is 2-15 ATS as a visitor after playing a game as a road underdog.
ESPN has the coverage at 7 Eastern and Michigan has covered four in a row overall.
Top team hits the road
John Calipari may be lugging around excess baggage from a couple of his stops, however two elements about him are absolutely true, he can recruit and he can coach. Since the new year, Kentucky (19-0, 9-8 ATS) has faced a number of challenges home and away and at every critical juncture of these games, the Wildcats never gulped and met adversity head on to emerge victorious. Opponents have started gearing defenses to corral John Wall and take away either Patrick Patterson or DeMarcus Cousins. Nonetheless, an Eric Bledsoe or Daniel Orton comes in and provides the necessary lift for the team. The Wildcats ambushed Arkansas Saturday 101-70 in a home game that wasn’t that close and are 9-2 ATS on the road after playing a game as a home favorite.
South Carolina (11-8, 7-9 ATS) has been a mild disappointment and losing two returning starters hasn’t helped. (Injury and suspension) The cure turns out be the great equalizer, scoring machine Devan Downey. The senior guard has been outstanding all season and evidently saved his best for last, being unstoppable in SEC action (31.6 points per game). Coach Darrin Horn had to retool his squad and focused on defense and rebounding in the frontcourt to take some of the pressure off Downey. The Gamecocks have to slow down Kentucky since they are 1-9 ATS at the Colonial Center vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points
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South Carolina has to regroup after a heart-breaking last second loss at Florida 58-56, in which Downey drained 36 points. The Gamecocks are a lengthy seven-point home underdog and are 8-1 ATS off two straight losses against conference rivals over the last three seasons. Top-ranked Kentucky is on a 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS roll in Columbia and is 9-2 ATS on the road playing only their second contest in eight days since last season.
This SEC showdown is set for 9 Eastern on ESPN, with South Carolina 0-7 all time taking on No.1.
Oh how the mighty have fallen
North Carolina (12-7, 6-11 ATS) has been an 8.5-point or more favorite over N.C. State (13-7,10-7-1 ATS) in last seven meetings, but tonight is a 1-point choice in Raleigh against a Wolfpack team that actually has a better record. The Tar Heels will look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat and are 9-3 SU and ATS at N.C. State.